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  • Average salvage statistics per item type

    TL;DR - Greens, Blues, Purples and Legendaries give about 4, 21, 53 and 85 (Lesser) Essence on average when salvaged. We can use this info to accurately compare running Trials with running Morgenheim and other maps for Essence Farming

    This is an attempt at kicking our data collection in a higher gear.
    Coda has made a great effort with his spreadsheet to record and compare Crafting Resource Data.

    One point where we in our discussions thought of a different approach is the qualifications of a level itself.
    I believe data collection will be more accurate if we treat Essence farming as 2 different steps:
    1. Play a level to collect items
    2. Salvage said items for Essences

    Both of these steps have their own random distribution associated with them, making data collection much more complex.
    If we would somehow “score” what the expected Essence output is from each item category, then we only need to focus on step 1 for each map: determining the spread of items on each map.

    As an example, if we discover Morgenheim drops (warning: made up numbers!) e.g. on average 5 greens, 7 blues, 0.5 purples and 0.2 legendaries, then we could easily compare this to Trial farming for 3 legendaries per run if we could “score” 3 legendaries to be equal to (again, made up numbers!) e.g. 15 greens and 10 blues in terms of average Essence yield.
    At that point the only other variables become: Gold, Gemstones, Mark of Titan drops and the time it takes to run each map. And perhaps the chance of the occasional Spirit dropping.

    I’ve set out to do exactly that. Provide a baseline for Essence yield on salvaging lvl70 items.


    Phase 1: Data collection

    For this exercise I’ve gathered a lot of items and salvaged them.
    I deeply apologise to the mathematicians and statisticians amongst us, because I’ve taken a couple lazy shortcuts which cause the calculations afterwards to be taken with a grain of salt (since almost nothing in my dataset has identical sample sizes except for the Legendaries) but sadly there’s little other choice because we have no access to infinite storage space, infinite spare time, nor consistent and replicable item drops.

    The result is data on the salvaging of:
    • 500 Greens (salvaged in 25 batches of 18-24 items)
    • 575 Blues (salvaged in 25 batches of 21-26 items)
    • 290 Purples (salvaged in 25 batches of 9-15 items)
    • 140 Legendaries (salvaged in 7 batches of 10, and another 70 items one by one)
    • 24 Purple Unique items (salvaged one by one)
    • 21 Purple Set items (salvaged one by one)
    • 13 Legendary Unique items (salvaged one by one)
    • 48 Legendary Set items (salvaged one by one)

    Total: 1611 items salvaged and recorded

    If you want access to the data set for your own analysis, PM me ;-).


    Phase 2: Comparing regulars and Unique/Set items

    The first thing I wanted to check is if a regular item has the same Essence salvage value as a Unique or Set item, with just the extra Mark of Titan and special materials bonus.
    For this, we assume Unique and Set items can be merged together into one dataset. Comparing the mean values of my data does point in that direction, but no explicit analysis was done due to the small data samples.

    A second assumption is that we should independently count Lesser Essence, Essence and Greater Essence values for greater accuracy: Greater Essences count for 100 Lesser but are such infrequent drops that some bad luck in the sample data would immediately skew the outcome to levels I don’t like.

    2.1: Purples:

    Our 25 samples of (in total 290 regular purples) shows the following confidence intervals (0.05 T-test interval with sampled Standard Deviation) on the “per item” yield in each salvage batch.
    ** Disclaimer: this is actually a violation of proper statistical procedure. Sampling batches should always have the same batch size. Sadly this game doesn’t just drop equal numbers of purples in your lap every few runs, so I’ve had to work with batches of 9-15 and calculate the average of each batch. Expect the margin of error to be significantly larger than what it should be because of that **

    Mean 95% Confidence Interval
    Lesser Essence 32.902 ±0.509
    Essence 1.511 ±0.141
    Greater Essence 0.044 ±0.031

    The 45 Purple Unique and Set items have the following Salvage yields:

    Mean 95% Confidence Interval
    Lesser Essence 33.222 ±1.366
    Essence 1.556 ±0.437
    Greater Essence 0.067 ±0.076

    Doing a 2-tailed T-test with unequal variances on the two datasets brings us the following statistical probabilities that the means of both populations samples are actually the same:

    Lesser Essence 0.658
    Essence 0.845
    Greater Essence 0.571

    Not overly convincing, but let’s be honest, with numbers this close the odds the developers in fact indeed intend these numbers to be equal is pretty damn large.

    2.2: Legendaries:

    Our 14 samples of (in total 140 regular legendaries, batched nicely per 10) shows the following confidence intervals (0.05 T-test interval with sampled Standard Deviation) on the “per item” yield in each salvage batch.

    Mean 95% Confidence Interval
    Lesser Essence 49.793 ±0.792
    Essence 2.693 ±0.287
    Greater Essence 0.071 ±0.048

    The 61 Legendary Unique and Set items have the following Salvage yields

    Mean 95% Confidence Interval
    Lesser Essence 49.754 ±1.060
    Essence 3.033 ±0.385
    Greater Essence 0.066 ±0.064

    Doing a 2-tailed T-test with unequal variances on the two datasets brings us the following statistical probabilities that the means of both populations samples are actually the same:

    Lesser Essence 0.952
    Essence 0.151
    Greater Essence 0.881

    As you can see, the difference on the Lesser essences is exceptionally low, and the T-test actually reaches 95% confidence the means are the same.
    We also clearly see in our data set that the salvage values for every legendary tend to situate around 50, being the expected sum of 4 uniformly distributed Lesser Essence yields of 7-18 per type.



    Conclusion: I’m quite confident a Unique item or Set item salvages the same Essences as its normal quality counterpart, with just extra Mark of Titan and Special Materials on top as a bonus.


    Phase 3: Scoring the quality of each item

    Now that we have shown in Phase 2 that Unique and Set items give the same yield, we can merge the datasets for a more accurate overall mean calculation.

    I’ll report 2 means: the mean of our data samples (so the mean of the averages per salvaging batch, which is sadly not 100% accurate but does allow some *sort of kinda indicative* confidence intervals to be shown, at least for an expected yield in the case of big numbers.
    Next to that I’ll also calculate the overall mean of the full data set, simply summing all Essence yields together and dividing by the number of items salvaged.
    These two numbers are very close together, but reported both for completeness. In the case of Purple and Legendary data sets, due to the mixed individual and batched data the Batch mean and Confidence Interval will only refer to the 290 and 140 regular items, the overall mean includes Unique and Set items.

    To calculate total Essence yield, we’ll take the yield of each subtype, and multiply this by the Lesser Essence Equivalent (so *10 for regular Essence and *100 for Greater Essence).
    ** We now make abstraction of the gold cost needed to combine/shatter essences, let’s consider it out of scope **

    Batch mean 95% Confidence Interval Overall mean
    Green 3.801 0.168 3.806
    Blue 21.251 1.580 21.217
    Purple 52.373 3.535 52.848
    Legendary 83.864 5.996 84.706

    Phase 4: Scoring maps

    This Overall Mean calculation now finally gives us a tool to score the efficiency of maps in terms of Essence farming.
    • A TL80+ level drops 3 legendaries, guaranteeing us (besides the potential of valuable set/unique crafting materials) on average 254 Lesser Essences worth of yield.
    • A run of a story map that takes the same amount of time should drop at least (just a made up split of course) e.g. 1 purple, 8 blues and 9 greens to beat the TL80+, being on average 257 Lesser Essences worth.

    Conclusion:
    Since for Trials we know the score is 254 for end-game farming, the only thing that remains for us as a community is to determine the average expected item drops for the story maps, something that is very fast to note down just by tallying greens, blues, purples and legendaries in the inventory every couple of runs.
    Then, for example, if Trial 80 takes you 2 minutes per run, as long as you find Story mode maps yielding >127/minute in Lesser Essence Score, they’ll be faster for you for Essence farming.
    Last edited by UmbraDei; 01-08-2019, 11:23 PM. Reason: Corrected copy-paste error in the accompanying text.

  • #2
    To achieve these numbers for legendaries, for example, do we have to salvage them 1 at a time? As opposed to running trial 80 10 times and then just salvaging the whole lot at once?
    CL 2K+
    Mage- Ladim(#9 Live LB), Proxima(XP)
    TL119 in 9:14 on mobile (iphone8)

    Mage Guide

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by lama75 View Post
      To achieve these numbers for legendaries, for example, do we have to salvage them 1 at a time? As opposed to running trial 80 10 times and then just salvaging the whole lot at once?
      Doesn't matter: this is the average Essence yield of legendaries *without the double salvage perk*. If you salvage 1, or you salvage 40, on average you'll just get 84.7 or 3388 Lesser Essence worth. On average that is.

      And probably a bit more thanks to the salvage perk bonus, where all yield for part of your items is doubled.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by UmbraDei View Post
        Doesn't matter: this is the average Essence yield of legendaries *without the double salvage perk*. If you salvage 1, or you salvage 40, on average you'll just get 84.7 or 3388 Lesser Essence worth. On average that is.

        And probably a bit more thanks to the salvage perk bonus, where all yield for part of your items is doubled.
        I think the big question here is if it makes a difference salvaging all legendary set items at once, or one at a time for the chance to double the MoT drops, or for that matter, MoT drops in general. In theory, it shouldn't make a difference, but does it in game presently? If testing, a small sample size won't work due to RNG here I presume.

        Comment


        • #5
          Here's some data. I ran 4-47 a total of 23 times, using the following build & style:
          • BH, optimized for speed & gold = 2361% EG
          • Max Currency Booster running the whole time
          • Crafting Mastery Level 50
          • Resume attack after moving, is ON. Allow the killing in each area to finish, thus killing most all the monsters, but don't go backwards, nor divert sideways much seeking out more monsters. If 'auto-attack' pulls me towards the boss, mostly just keep going. On the other hand, not a full "zerg" -- don't run past / avoid killing monsters. There are a lot of Elites and they're dropping gemstones, crafting resources, and gear, which I want.
          • Don't go backwards or to the side, much, to open chests. If already fairly near them, open them. Again, not a full zerg, but chests contain gear & crafting resources (but not gemstones) which I want, so open them when it doesn't cause much of a delay.
          • Open the 2 chests at the end. Wait for the main flood of loot from behind, to fly in, but after that, end the level. Don't wait for the entire "gold fountain" to finish.
          • Some variation in gear collected from each run, is due to this style is not perfectly repeatable. Sometimes I get enticed to walk a few extra steps for a chest or group of monsters that perhaps in another run, I didn't bother with.
          I kept track of gears from every run individually via a screenshot of inventory after each run. Then, salvage all. I stopped at after run #13, and then after run #23, to take a screenshot of crafting inventory, etc. to get "stats" in 2 batches.

          I used UmbraDei above data, to estimate how many Essences I should have gotten, and compared that to the actual:

          Click image for larger version

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          Here's the per run data from each "batch" of runs...
          Batch #1 Batch #2
          # Runs 13 10
          Time (minutes) 1.12 1.17
          Gems 0.92 0.20
          Gemstones 47.0 48.4
          Gold (total) 84,015 89,386
          L.Essences 237 262
          Silver Ore 24.31 23.80
          Base Materials 54 52
          Mark of Titans 0.08 0.00

          And the overall stats from all 23 runs combined...
          per Run per Min
          # Runs - 0.88
          Time (minutes) 1.14 -
          Gems 0.61 0.53
          Gemstones 47.6 41.7
          Gold (total) 86,350 75,611
          L.Essences 248 217
          Silver Ore 24.1 21.1
          Base Materials 52.8 46.3
          Mark of Titans 0.04 0.04

          One other note -- I received no 'Spirits' whatsoever. In my way of reporting the data in a consolidated manner (described here), had I received any, I would've converted them back to Essences, gold, etc. But I found it notable that zero dropped.

          Only 1 Mark of Titans dropped in 23 runs that took about 26.6 minutes of total in-map time. For MoTs we're going to need to run high level trials for Set/Unique Gear.

          Lastly, you can get more gold & gemstones from running faster (kill less monsters but do more runs). But I don't need gold & gemstones and instead I am interested in the resources & gear -- to salvage for more resources, namely Essences -- so I am OK with "slower" runs but the haul of dropped resources and especially the haul of gear is greater. You can see this in batch #2 vs. batch #1 -- it's a little slower, but the haul of Essences (which only come from salvaging gear) is greater.

          VUFO ZEBE ZAQI 1381 -|- Gethi, mage, & Kisheli, XP mage

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Coda View Post
            Here's some data. I ran 4-47 a total of 23 times, using the following build & style:
            • BH, optimized for speed & gold = 2361% EG
            • Max Currency Booster running the whole time
            • Crafting Mastery Level 50
            • Resume attack after moving, is ON. Allow the killing in each area to finish, thus killing most all the monsters, but don't go backwards, nor divert sideways much seeking out more monsters. If 'auto-attack' pulls me towards the boss, mostly just keep going. On the other hand, not a full "zerg" -- don't run past / avoid killing monsters. There are a lot of Elites and they're dropping gemstones, crafting resources, and gear, which I want.
            • Don't go backwards or to the side, much, to open chests. If already fairly near them, open them. Again, not a full zerg, but chests contain gear & crafting resources (but not gemstones) which I want, so open them when it doesn't cause much of a delay.
            • Open the 2 chests at the end. Wait for the main flood of loot from behind, to fly in, but after that, end the level. Don't wait for the entire "gold fountain" to finish.
            • Some variation in gear collected from each run, is due to this style is not perfectly repeatable. Sometimes I get enticed to walk a few extra steps for a chest or group of monsters that perhaps in another run, I didn't bother with.
            I kept track of gears from every run individually via a screenshot of inventory after each run. Then, salvage all. I stopped at after run #13, and then after run #23, to take a screenshot of crafting inventory, etc. to get "stats" in 2 batches.

            I used UmbraDei above data, to estimate how many Essences I should have gotten, and compared that to the actual:

            Click image for larger version

Name:	Untitled-1.png
Views:	731
Size:	14.0 KB
ID:	123941


            Here's the per run data from each "batch" of runs...
            Batch #1 Batch #2
            # Runs 13 10
            Time (minutes) 1.12 1.17
            Gems 0.92 0.20
            Gemstones 47.0 48.4
            Gold (total) 84,015 89,386
            L.Essences 237 262
            Silver Ore 24.31 23.80
            Base Materials 54 52
            Mark of Titans 0.08 0.00

            And the overall stats from all 23 runs combined...
            per Run per Min
            # Runs - 0.88
            Time (minutes) 1.14 -
            Gems 0.61 0.53
            Gemstones 47.6 41.7
            Gold (total) 86,350 75,611
            L.Essences 248 217
            Silver Ore 24.1 21.1
            Base Materials 52.8 46.3
            Mark of Titans 0.04 0.04

            One other note -- I received no 'Spirits' whatsoever. In my way of reporting the data in a consolidated manner (described here), had I received any, I would've converted them back to Essences, gold, etc. But I found it notable that zero dropped.

            Only 1 Mark of Titans dropped in 23 runs that took about 26.6 minutes of total in-map time. For MoTs we're going to need to run high level trials for Set/Unique Gear.

            Lastly, you can get more gold & gemstones from running faster (kill less monsters but do more runs). But I don't need gold & gemstones and instead I am interested in the resources & gear -- to salvage for more resources, namely Essences -- so I am OK with "slower" runs but the haul of dropped resources and especially the haul of gear is greater. You can see this in batch #2 vs. batch #1 -- it's a little slower, but the haul of Essences (which only come from salvaging gear) is greater.
            Great work Coda! Now how does this compare to an equal amount of time spent farming TL90 (or 80 for lower leveled players)? TL90 seems to be the best bang for your buck in terms of set drops and speed runs. Obviously more MoTs and less gold/gemstones, but how about essences? I assume you will gain less in trials under the same variables as running Morg, BUT...is it significantly less where it's worthwhile to spend time in both Morg and trials to get the necessary MoTs and essences for celestial orbs? Or is it more beneficial to just run trials where you get everything (except gold), albeit at a lower essence drop rate? Right now, I focus more on trials for both MoTs and essences, and hit Morg here and there with my gold farmer, since orbs will be very costly in the long run. Both for the 500K orb craft, and the millions needed to go from lesser essence ---> essence ---> greater essence ----> spirit.

            In the long run, no matter which way you cut it, I feel both trials and story mode farming will be needed, just because both gold and MoTs will be the limiting factor (essences are available via both routes). That is of course if nothing changes during the plethora of updates in the pipeline.

            Comment


            • #7
              Coda Thanks for the data points, very interesting!

              One thing to take into account: to keep accuracy as high as possible, I did my calculations on an account without any crafting mastery level.
              So your 'Expected' Essences should actually be factor 1.25 higher due to double salvaging procs.

              In effect, that makes the 'Expected' Essences respectively 3395 and 2778, meaning you deviated only 10% and 6.2% from the expectations, which I think is a relatively acceptable margin of error for so many compounded random effects at play.

              Comment


              • #8
                Trial 92 / mobile
                - Build: XP mage; no Extra Gold other than 50% from CL points
                - Crafting ML50
                - Scrapper perk is 25%.
                - Scrounger perk which boosts drops from chests 25% @ ML50 does not apply to Trials.
                - Playing mobile while travelling -- a bit distracted = slow runs due to occasional deaths & playing more pack to pack than big pulls.

                Similar to the data from running 4-47 (Morgenheim), from running Trial 92 for ~47 minutes, the drops from monsters & bosses (no salvaging) yield only the following resources:
                • base materials = iron, leather, cloth, and less often, each of their higher level equivalents = mithril, enchanted leather, nightcloth
                • very rarely, a Silver Ornament (1 in 11 runs over 47 minutes)
                • very rarely, a Mark of Titans (1 in 11 runs over 47 minutes)
                These items do not drop:
                • Essences -- from salvaging only
                • Spirits -- from crafting only
                • Silver Dust -- from crafting only
                From 11 runs, there were 20 Set/Unique pieces of Legendary gear (salvaged in batch #1) and 13 normal pieces of Legendary gear (batch #2). This is ~61% Set/Unique. This number is important because MoTs only come from salvaging Set/Unique.

                Note: a sample of 3 x 11 is not enough data to pin down that number with accuracy. In other words, there "actual" or "true" average probability is likely to be somewhere around 60% but might be less or more. And there's no reason that this result of 61% is necessarily close to the "middle" of the "true" range. Someone better than I am at Probability/Statistics, can tell us how much data we would need (Set/Unique vs. Normal, from how many runs) in order to have a certain degree of confidence in the overall average. Or, with only 11 runs of 3 gears each, how much or little confidence we can have in the result of 61%. Again, this is important because lower Trials yield less Set/Unique gear. I am going to post data from Trial 82 that shows this.

                Here's the per run data for Trial 92, for salvaging the Set/Unique vs. Normal Gear:
                ~
                Set/Unique Normal
                Gold (total) 15,999 6,944
                L.Essences 321 303
                Silver Ore 27.97 15.82
                Base Materials 41 22
                Mark of Titans 3.69 0.09
                ~
                Remember that "gold" the way I post it, is combined {collected} plus {equivalent gold value} if you would've had to craft the resources you got from salvaging.

                ~~~
                And here's the overall data (combined Set/Unique/Normal) from all 11 runs that took ~47 minutes:
                ~
                per Run per Min
                # Runs - 0.24
                Time (minutes) 4.23 -
                Gems 1.91 0.45
                Gemstones 5.8 1.4
                Gold (total) 12,432 2,936
                L.Essences 314 74
                Silver Ore 23.2 5.5
                Base Materials 33.6 7.9
                Mark of Titans 2.27 0.54
                ~
                For quick comparison,
                • Story 4-47
                  • 217 Essences, but nearly zero Mark of Titans, per minute

                    vs.~
                • Trial Level 92
                  • 74 Essences, and 0.5 MoT per minute
                For one Celestial Orb, you need 100 Mark of Titan and 150 Spirits which is the equivalent of {150 Spirits} * {2 Greater Essence per Spirit} * {100 Lesser Essence per Greater Essence} = 30000 Lesser Essences. {Yeah, I am ignoring gold and silver ore/dust at the moment.} In other words, you are looking for a ratio of 300 L.Essence : ~1 MoT. Trial 92 ratio is 138.

                Based on UmbraDei data in the OP, the predicted # of Essences was 3459, including the 25% boost from the Scrapper Perk.... and the actual was 3454.

                ~~~
                Zudd -- please do not quote a long post in its entirety. You can just tag me Coda or quote a specific part of a long post if necessary. You could edit your post above to clean it up.
                Last edited by Coda; 01-12-2019, 02:10 AM.
                VUFO ZEBE ZAQI 1381 -|- Gethi, mage, & Kisheli, XP mage

                Comment


                • #9
                  Trial 82, mobile
                  - same build & style, still ML50, again no currency booster = EG 50%

                  Same resources dropped & didn't drop except zero MoTs dropped from 12 runs. However that is almost certainly not statistically different from 1 having dropped previously. Case in point, 2 silver ornaments dropped instead of the 1 that dropped previously, but that doesn't mean the drop rate is double. It's likely that it is about the same.

                  From trial 82, over 12 runs there were 9 Set/Unique items and 27 normal, or 25% Set/Unique. This is about half what it was from TL92 (61% over those 11 runs).

                  Per Run:
                  Set/Uniq Normal
                  Gold (total) 12,277 6,977
                  L.Essences 376 336
                  Silver Ore 21.42 13.42
                  Base Materials 31 17
                  Mark of Titans 2.67 0.00
                  ~
                  Overall:
                  per Run per Min
                  # Runs - 0.38
                  Time (minutes) 2.62 -
                  Gems 1.75 0.67
                  Gemstones 5.0 1.9 Ratio
                  Gold (total) 8,302 3,173 E:MoT
                  L.Essences 346 132 519
                  Silver Ore 15.4 5.9
                  Base Materials 20.3 7.8
                  Mark of Titans 0.67 0.25
                  ~
                  The much faster runs mean the yield of Essences was higher (132 vs. 74). If you simply use the change in speed to predict the Essence rate, you get 74 * {0.38/0.24} = 117. This time, 3774 Essences were expected and the actual was 4149 (+10%). Previously we hit the expected value right on. So if you adjust 117 by that same +10% you get 129.... that's pretty close to 132!

                  The ratio of E:MoT is too high at 519. So, the "optimum level" is somewhere in between 82 and 92. If it were linear in between, we should run TL88 for approximately the target ratio of 300.
                  Last edited by Coda; 01-12-2019, 02:12 AM.
                  VUFO ZEBE ZAQI 1381 -|- Gethi, mage, & Kisheli, XP mage

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Trial 87 / Mobile
                    - same build & style; ML50; no currency booster = EG 50%

                    1 MoT & zero Ornaments dropped from 14 runs.

                    There were 15 Set/Unique items and 27 normal, or 36% Set/Unique. Compare this to ~25% from TL82, and ~61% from TL87. Again, these percentages need to be considered as fairly approximate.

                    Per Run:
                    ~
                    Normal Set/Unique
                    Gold (total) 5,610 13,066
                    L.Essences 285 245
                    Silver Ore 13.74 25.47
                    Base Materials 18 38
                    Mark of Titans 0 4
                    ~
                    Overall:
                    ~
                    per Run per Min
                    # Runs - 0.30
                    Time (minutes) 3.36 -
                    Gems 1.71 0.51
                    Gemstones 6.1 1.8
                    Gold (total) 8,273 2,461 E:MoT
                    L.Essences 270 80 180
                    Silver Ore 17.9 5.3
                    Base Materials 25.4 7.5
                    Mark of Titans 1.50 0.45
                    ~
                    RNG appears to have affected this set of runs, positively and negatively. Namely, the expected Essences were 4403 but only 3786 (-14%) were received. On the other hand, the rate for MoTs went up nicely, from 0.25 to 0.45. This is nearly as good as TL92 which was 0.54. So, as a result, we have a disappointing E:MoT ratio of only 180, compared to an interpolated predicted value of a little under 300. Again, a positive "random fluctuation" on MoTs combined with a negative fluctuation on Essences is probably why.

                    We could continue running TL87 for more data to see if we can get a better idea of the "true" averages. Or re-run TL92 -- maybe it had an unusual result for Set/unique = MoTs or Essences. Or we could run TL89, 90, or 91 to fill in the gaps -- however note that this would introduce a variable of "different boss" which so far we've avoided by sticking with _2's & _7's = TBD.

                    VUFO ZEBE ZAQI 1381 -|- Gethi, mage, & Kisheli, XP mage

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      4-47 | Morgenheim : Legendary vs. Normal
                      • mobile; BH tuned for speed; 2361% EG; Crafting ML50
                      • opened most of the chests but did not wait for the gold fountain at the end (don't need gold)
                      • I kept track of gears and resources from every run, 12 runs total of each difficulty
                      TL;DR - run Normal
                      The gear is better from Legendary, but not enough better, and you also run a little bit slower. The results are actually NOT statistically significantly different, but the averages are higher for Normal, so why not err to the positive side of things and run Normal.

                      Here's the table of # of gears collected, with runs 1-12 = Normal and 13-24 = Legendary:
                      ~
                      Common Uncommon Rare Epic Legendary Expected Actual
                      Essences --> 0 4.75 26.56 65.47 104.83 Essences Essences
                      Run #1 7 7 8 - - 246 333
                      2 6 3 12 - - 333 181
                      3 7 8 9 1 - 343 274
                      4 7 7 8 - - 246 196
                      5 7 8 7 - - 224 212
                      6 8 7 9 - - 272 319
                      7 7 3 10 - - 280 240
                      8 5 7 5 - - 166 198
                      9 5 6 8 - - 241 235
                      10 7 6 11 1 - 386 861
                      11 7 5 10 - - 289 358
                      12 6 3 8 - - 227 447
                      --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
                      13 6 6 6 - - 188 120
                      14 9 4 7 - - 205 381
                      15 7 5 13 - - 369 309
                      16 7 5 3 - - 103 131
                      17 9 6 4 1 1 305 256
                      18 5 7 5 - - 166 216
                      19 7 4 5 1 - 217 156
                      20 7 4 4 1 - 191 149
                      21 6 5 11 1 1 486 436
                      22 7 4 7 - - 205 158
                      23 8 4 17 1 - 536 602
                      24 8 3 8 2 - 358 329
                      ~
                      Overall:
                      Normal: Expected = 3253 ; Actual = 3854 ; Difference = +18.5% (total gears 256, about 21 per run)
                      Legend: Expected = 3329 ; Actual = 3243 ; Difference = -2.6% (total gears 242 ; about 20 per run or ~5% fewer... probably just random)

                      When comparing these two data-sets, one could argue that it's not "fair" because one sample (Normal) has a mean that is +18.5% from what we hope is the true mean, and the other sample (Legendary) is -2.6%. That's potentially introducing a bias of ~21%. So I compared both the actual and the predicted values in T-tests. And I compared all the usual numbers not just Essences:

                      T-Tests
                      ~
                      Diff. in (µ's) p
                      values
                      Gems (0.26) 0.457
                      Gemstones 6.0 0.364
                      Gold (total) 3458 0.510
                      L.Essences 64 0.496
                      Silver Ore 0.8 0.625
                      Base Materials 7.4 0.347
                      Mark of Titans 0.15 0.166
                      Predicted Essences 12 0.882
                      ~
                      We need a low p-value (0.05 is commonly used as the threshold) to conclude with confidence that the means are different. Another way to look at the p-values is, that they represent the probability that the means are not different, that the two 'samples' are from the same population.

                      Here's a summary of each data-set:

                      NORMAL
                      ~
                      per Run per Min
                      # Runs - 0.92
                      Time (minutes) 1.09 -
                      Gems 0.33 0.31
                      Gemstones 50.3 46.3
                      Gold (total) 87,702 80,749
                      L.Essences 321 296
                      Predicted E's 271 250
                      Silver Ore 25.6 23.6
                      Base Materials 54.8 50.4
                      Mark of Titans 0.17 0.15
                      ~
                      ~
                      LEGENDARY
                      ~
                      per Run per Min
                      # Runs - 0.86
                      Time (minutes) 1.17 -
                      Gems 0.67 0.57
                      Gemstones 47.0 40.3
                      Gold (total) 90,173 77,291
                      L.Essences 270 232
                      Predicted E's 277 238
                      Silver Ore 26.6 22.8
                      Base Materials 50.2 43.0
                      Mark of Titans 0.00 0.00
                      ~
                      Note -- the prior dataset of Legendary runs (see post above) yielded 217 Essences per minute ... not much different from this result of 232.

                      As mentioned, the average Predicted Essences of 250 (normal) vs. 238 (legendary) is NOT statistically significant. None of the other differences are either, but Normal is higher for Essences AND higher for gemstones, gold, ore, and base materials. Even if they are really "the same", and one could run either, why would we, since Legendary is a little slower and takes a bit more concentration.

                      Since Crafting was released, I have been running Legendary and gave others advice to do so, having assumed that it must be better. Sorry!
                      Last edited by Coda; 01-27-2019, 04:29 PM.
                      VUFO ZEBE ZAQI 1381 -|- Gethi, mage, & Kisheli, XP mage

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                      • #12
                        I forgot to mention that during the above 24 runs, I had 1 Haunting Spirit drop. That's the first and only one since I started paying close attention with version 1.3.31. So, I guess the drop rate is not zero, but it must be extremely low.
                        VUFO ZEBE ZAQI 1381 -|- Gethi, mage, & Kisheli, XP mage

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                        • #13
                          I already have 8 mark of titans hahaha. Tell me how many do you got?

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Don Ramon View Post
                            I already have 8 mark of titans hahaha. Tell me how many do you got?
                            257 mark of Titan here

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Coda View Post
                              TL;DR - run Normal
                              The gear is better from Legendary, but not enough better, and you also run a little bit slower. The results are actually NOT statistically significantly different, but the averages are higher for Normal, so why not err to the positive side of things and run Normal.
                              This is a shocking find. I actually kind of feel like the devs should fix this. Thanks for this.

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