Eternium
Eternium

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

I give you data

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #16
    This is what probably spells the end for me with this game, I only like games like poker that rely on a huge % of luck. This game has now become an exploiters wet dream. Leaves the rest of us hoping for a bit of luck.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by RAFERS102 View Post
      Wow, I have done around 50 runs of TL 100 and not seen anything above TL72.
      The chance of getting higher level gear applies to crafting only. The expected chance to get Level 73 or higher would be 6.4% (at ML 50).
      So far, I have not seen a single drop above Level 72, although a few lucky people experienced some. They seem to be a once-in-a-blue-moon thing though.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by MarkHark View Post

        That's an easy mistaky to make (I have been guilty myself). The actual chance for a Level 74 should be [2.56 - 1.024]% or 1.536%.



        ​​​​​​
        It's unfortunately not a set item.
        I'd KILL (at least a thousand minions ) for that!
        Don't think probability works like that. If x is the chance of happening of an event then the chances of that event happening n times in a row are x^n. In this case 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.256

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by ShotDead View Post
          Don't think probability works like that. If x is the chance of happening of an event then the chances of that event happening n times in a row are x^n. In this case 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.256
          But you need to remove the probabilities for getting a level 75, so it's: 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 (ie, no 5th proc) => 0.01536
          - that is if we're assuming that the proc is only checked 5 times in total...
          Last edited by Nhat; 07-25-2019, 05:39 AM.
          Eternium Files - links and details (Updated: 21 May 2019)

          Eternium Guides:(I'm no longer updating any of the above, feel free to use anything there and make updated versions, for them - if you wish)

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Nhat View Post

            But you need to remove the probabilities for getting a level 75, so it's: 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 (ie, no 5th proc) => 0.01536
            - that is if we're assuming that the proc is only checked 5 times in total...
            How would you solve this:
            A coin is tossed infinitely, whats the probability of getting a head on first 4 tosses?
            Don't think the recurrence of an event 5th time affects the probability of first 4 times.

            Comment


            • #21
              On second thought, I think you have a point. In this particular case my question would reduce to:
              A coin is tossed 5 times, whats the probability of getting a head on first 4 tosses and a tail on 5th?
              hmmm, nice. TIL

              Comment


              • #22
                More interesting would be be case for L73. I guess that would be 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 x 1
                So chance of getting a L71 are actually 24% (and not 40%)?

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by ShotDead View Post
                  More interesting would be be case for L73. I guess that would be 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 x 1
                  So chance of getting a L71 are actually 24% (and not 40%)?
                  That't it! [INSERT COMPLIMENT ICON] we definitely need more emoticons in this forum!

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by ShotDead View Post
                    How would you solve this:
                    A coin is tossed infinitely, whats the probability of getting a head on first 4 tosses?
                    Don't think the recurrence of an event 5th time affects the probability of first 4 times.
                    The occurence of the 5th doesn't affect the first 4, but it does mean that you end up with a level 75 item instead of a level 74 one...
                    Which comes to your next point:

                    Originally posted by ShotDead View Post
                    On second thought, I think you have a point. In this particular case my question would reduce to:
                    A coin is tossed 5 times, whats the probability of getting a head on first 4 tosses and a tail on 5th?
                    hmmm, nice. TIL
                    Yep, exactly this...



                    Originally posted by ShotDead View Post
                    More interesting would be be case for L73. I guess that would be 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.4 x 0.6 x 1
                    So chance of getting a L71 are actually 24% (and not 40%)?
                    Edit: Yep, otherwise it'll be impossible to get anything else, since L70 is 60% and L71 at 40% => total 100% already...
                    Last edited by Nhat; 07-25-2019, 10:51 AM.
                    Eternium Files - links and details (Updated: 21 May 2019)

                    Eternium Guides:(I'm no longer updating any of the above, feel free to use anything there and make updated versions, for them - if you wish)

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      So the precise calculations come out to:
                      L70 60.000%
                      L71 24.000%
                      L72 9.600%
                      L73 3.840%
                      L74 1.536%
                      L75 1.024%

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by ShotDead View Post
                        So the precise calculations come out to:
                        L70 60.000%
                        L71 24.000%
                        L72 9.600%
                        L73 3.840%
                        L74 1.536%
                        L75 1.024%
                        All along I believed this was the case. But then again...
                        KEFI BIPI VIMI 8073
                        Garlic - TL100 Looter/Salvager/Crafter
                        Playing exclusively for fun

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Garlic View Post

                          All along I believed this was the case. But then again...
                          I made a major fk up by not checking the total probablity of all the events to 1

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Update guys, I did one more craft run. Will post results later. It can be done in 3 days, half-effort grinding. Lol, watch a series during and the materials pile up without even noticing. Btw I also needed 225 gems for the gold grind. No L75 this time. Not even a 73.


                            Here.

                            Click image for larger version

Name:	craft2.png
Views:	152
Size:	275.6 KB
ID:	143144

                            A very sucky day indeed. Haha. Back to grinding, or not.
                            Last edited by Garlic; 07-26-2019, 02:42 PM. Reason: attached ss
                            KEFI BIPI VIMI 8073
                            Garlic - TL100 Looter/Salvager/Crafter
                            Playing exclusively for fun

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              I crafted five L75 and this is my data,

                              56th - L75 Wand
                              114th - L75 Tome
                              168th - L75 Shoulder Pads (socketed)
                              260th - L75 boots
                              301st - L75 Robe (2 sockets)

                              About L75 drops, i got 3 items so far
                              1. L75 - Generic Cap
                              2. L75 - Wand (3 usable atts)
                              3. L75 - Tome (3 usable atts)
                              "...Mobile only (Samsung Galaxy J6)..."

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Kirel View Post
                                I crafted five L75 and this is my data,

                                56th - L75 Wand
                                114th - L75 Tome
                                168th - L75 Shoulder Pads (socketed)
                                260th - L75 boots
                                301st - L75 Robe (2 sockets)

                                About L75 drops, i got 3 items so far
                                1. L75 - Generic Cap
                                2. L75 - Wand (3 usable atts)
                                3. L75 - Tome (3 usable atts)
                                Very nice! wow!
                                KEFI BIPI VIMI 8073
                                Garlic - TL100 Looter/Salvager/Crafter
                                Playing exclusively for fun

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X