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    I am getting frustrated. I have grinded hundreds of 90-100 trials and statistically should have seen a few 74 or 75 pieces. Nada zip grrrr

    #2
    Yeah, statistically speaking you can go a long time.without ever seeing one. Sorry!! My worst luck streak ever of this sort was going for a 10% drop chance and missing 54 in a row! It was brutal.
    Mainly Mobile, Mainly Mage
    Teran - CL2000

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      #3
      Unfortunately, the “dice” don’t remember previous rolls. I thought the drop rate to be much less than 1%, but even so, I would imagine 1000s of runs would give you a more valid picture. Of course, I am not a statistics wizard...

      (However, I do know approximately how many people you need to ask their birthday (month and day) before the probability is greater than 50% that two will match...)

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        #4
        Originally posted by Dlkoning View Post
        I am getting frustrated. I have grinded hundreds of 90-100 trials and statistically should have seen a few 74 or 75 pieces. Nada zip grrrr
        True, true. That makes one wonder where these guys get their luck. I've mentioned previously that I've seen 1 L73 piece with really crappy attributes but crafted a couple. Not to worry about these two playahs. There equip is typically CD, CR, Haste, Ability, Exp. as seen below. These seem unlikely to be drops but crafted, somehow or other.
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        Attached Files
        FEYI FAJU BESE 4881

        Enthusiastic but inept player. Computer programmer and world traveler.

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          #5
          I hope those guys are just huge whales, spending tons of money to support the devs. Imagine how many resource crates they've bought to KRaft that many 74s & 75s!

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            #6
            Originally posted by ScabbyNuisance View Post
            I hope those guys are just huge whales, spending tons of money to support the devs. Imagine how many resource crates they've bought to KRaft that many 74s & 75s!
            If you can cheat attributes and equip level, I can assure you that cranking out a few million in gems is easy. I've seen the Portuguese video and cranking out millions of gems was featured. Their advice? "Don't be greedy!" as they went for 9,999,999 gems. So, they are not paying customers of MF either. Max cheats at everything.
            FEYI FAJU BESE 4881

            Enthusiastic but inept player. Computer programmer and world traveler.

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              #7
              Originally posted by Dlkoning View Post
              I am getting frustrated. I have grinded hundreds of 90-100 trials and statistically should have seen a few 74 or 75 pieces. Nada zip grrrr
              The 1% is applied for crafting (with ML50). There is unknown probability for drops.

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                #8
                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

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                  #9
                  So Travis, are you telling me to not expect a 74 or 75 drop any time soon?

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                    #10
                    I have a lame hunter that I am just toying with occasional tl 80. He will probably get my only 75 drop

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                      #11
                      Originally posted by Dlkoning View Post
                      So Travis, are you telling me to not expect a 74 or 75 drop any time soon?
                      It's an on-going issues with how most people associates "% chance" to "X out of Y attempts". As mentioned, the dice doesn't remember your last roll, so each Trial run/craft is always your "first" in the whole "X out of Y" view of things...

                      So yeah, pure luck...
                      Eternium Files - links and details (13 Dec 2019 - Changed links to file, please update if you have them book-marked)

                      Eternium Guides:

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                        #12
                        Originally posted by Dlkoning View Post
                        So Travis, are you telling me to not expect a 74 or 75 drop any time soon?
                        Please read this post first:
                        https://forum.makingfun.com/forum/et...egendary-gears

                        There are lvl 74-75 drops, but so far, according to reports, nothing useful (e.g. not-set items, useless stats). The best way to get useful items of lvl 74-75 is crafting. Anyway, you still need farming drops for crafting materials.

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                          #13
                          Originally posted by Terranisaur View Post
                          Yeah, statistically speaking you can go a long time.without ever seeing one. Sorry!! My worst luck streak ever of this sort was going for a 10% drop chance and missing 54 in a row! It was brutal.
                          Suspect there is an error in the calcs: according to the Google, 90 to the 54th power is 1 in 3.38... to the 105th power of missing that many times in a row. 90 is the chance of missing, btw. 90 x 90 is the odds of missing twice in a row. Exceedingly unlikely IOW.
                          FEYI FAJU BESE 4881

                          Enthusiastic but inept player. Computer programmer and world traveler.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by ྿༻Travis༺྿ (Support Mgr.) View Post
                            Maximum crafting level is 40% chance of getting one higher level. Two higher levels, 40% x 40% or 16%.
                            40% **5 = .01024 or 1.024% of crafting a 75. Out of all those 1000's of green armor I crafted to get to highest crafting level, even as my eyes glazed over, I think I saw only 4 or 5 pieces that had been raised up 5 levels.

                            Here's a thought problem. What are the odds that Hwang here is a cheater? Off hand, I'd say pretty good.

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                            It costs 210k gold to craft ONE piece, one time, let alone 9 pieces. It takes around 65 cracks at 99% against you to get an even chance to craft a 75. That is over 13 million gold for one piece. Not to mention that it'd take 140 greater essences, per roll in Ingrid's crafting slot machine. Hmmm.... seems somehow expensive and very, very....very unlikely.
                            FEYI FAJU BESE 4881

                            Enthusiastic but inept player. Computer programmer and world traveler.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by TerryDarc View Post

                              Suspect there is an error in the calcs: according to the Google, 90 to the 54th power is 1 in 3.38... to the 105th power of missing that many times in a row. 90 is the chance of missing, btw. 90 x 90 is the odds of missing twice in a row. Exceedingly unlikely IOW.
                              You should compute [.90^54], which gives an actual chance of 0.3%. Leaving the decimal point off the equation completely changes the result.
                              Last edited by MarkHark; 08-06-2019, 12:32 AM.

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