Need clarity on odds for level 77 item crafting attempts with new hero

[Blahhh]

Checked out a different crafting guides and various posts/threads, but one thing that is still unclear to me:

I roughly understand that the odds of crafting a level 77 item for a new hero is 1/64 chance for the first time crafting with that new hero.

However, are these odds the same no matter what type of unique or set item you are crafting? For example, if my first attempt at crafting anything with a new hero is a Torch weapon, I assume that means I have a 1/64 chance of getting a level 77 Torch. Then, if I do not get a level 77 on that first attempt, my next crafting attempt for a Torch with that same new hero should be slightly improved odds (something better than 1/64 so maybe something like for example 1/50). So then, the real question is, with the same character and after trying 2 attempts to craft a Torch, and then my 3rd overall crafting attempt I try for a different item such as Firebug, does the crafting odds go back to 1/64 because it is a new type of item or does the overall crafting odds improve yet again (something better than 1/50)?

So again the real question is that whether your level 77 odds change based on all crafting attempts in a row regardless of type of crafted item or if the crafting odds change if you attempt to craft different types of items.


Related side question, do any of these odds depend on your actual new hero level? For example trying that first new hero craft as a level 1 or doing no crafting at all with that new hero until you hit the level 70 mark.

[Nhat]

As far as I understand it, the game starts tracking your crafts for level 71 Legendary, Unique or Set items, doesn't matter which one specifically. Most players uses the predictor created by a player for their crafts: http://pythiacrafting.com/

[Blahhh]

So what you said here and what Halbrad said below checks with what I mostly suspected, however when I use the pythia crafting link it does not seem to follow those statistical trends unless I am using it incorrectly.....The more non-lvl77 items i put in that calculator, the lower (or even inconsistent) the odds show to get a lvl 77 item. For example, if i put in having crafted 4 items at level 73, it shows the odds of getting a lvl77 item at then show at going from 1.5% to then 0%....

[Halbrad]

Your probably using it incorrectly then. You need to enter the actual full crafting history of your character. Either by entering manually or by entering 1 random value so the Check Crafts option becomes available. Then you can enter the leaderboard position, class and division. Pythia will then lookup your crafting history from the server.
When Pythia knows your history, it will give odds for your next craft.

Good to know
* if your character has done less than 20 crafts, Pythia is rather unreliable.
* between 20-35 crafts, she becomes pretty reliable but still gets the odd one off.
* after 35 crafts, you can almost blindly trust her prediction and she is more accurate than she suggests.
* only times to be careful is if she says e.g. 47% for a 73 and 45% for a 77.
* Pythia only works for Group 1 crafts and can only work with characters who have done ALL their group 1 crafts after their crafting mastery became 50

[Nhat]

Blahhh That's because pythia is NOT expecting it to be possible to have 4 lvl 73 crafted in a row, based on what is currently know about the current potential adjustment of the odds - I get the "! Potential issue, please check crafts below!" notice after I put in 4 lvl 73 as my initial crafts.

Based on current experiments and calculations, the odds for these special crafts are not constant, hence it was possible to make a predictor for it - but as with all random things, it can be wrong every now and then, but seems to be very rare based on what I've seen posted about it.

[Halbrad]

It depends. First, I assume that your mastery level is 50. If so, there are two groups that behave differently.
Group 1 consists of 71+ crafts of Set, Unique, Legacy items of Legendary level. Indeed, these crafts are mutually dependent and more or less fairly distributed. So after a 72, 73, 72 and another 72, you have a much bigger chance of a 74+ next. Doesn't matter which item from this group you craft, they all count.

Group2 is everything else. Here the chance of a 77 is straight up 1/64, no matter if you just had two 77s already, or didn't get one in a 1000 attempts.

Both groups are separate. So suppose you craft a 72 Torch, 73 Firebug, 72 Havoc hood, and 72 Integralas mantle. Whatever you craft next from group 1 has a high chance of being 74+. Even if you now first craft 10 items from group 2