bad luck crafting on my main

[eliel77]

since I have nothing better to do with my main char, while there is no AnB, im farming essences and gold and trying craft my first 77 with it. (I have already crafted one 77 and one 76 in my second AnB).

Im following the GFEM theory.

• 1 every 2 items for a lvl72
• 1 every 4 items for a lvl73
• 1 every 8 items for a lvl 74
• 1 every 16 items for a lvl 75
• 1 every 32 items for a lvl 76
• 1 every 64 items for a lvl 77
• 1 every 64 items for a lvl 71

so far this is my achievements:

first couple of crafts missed information, I was not taking notes as I was not familiar with the theory and it was my first char, and I was not level 50 with mastery level, but none of the crafts was level 76 or 77. all the record data bellow is crafting with level 50 mastery.


1st attempt - 1 item lvl 73
02- 72
03- 74
04- 72
05- 72
06- 73
07- 75
08- 73
09- 72
10- 72
11- 72
12- 76
13- 73
14- 72
15- 72
16- 73
17- 72
18- 75
19- 72
20- 73
21- 72
22- 72
23- 74
24- 72
25- 73
26- 71
27- 72
28- 73
29- 72
30- 73
31- 74
32- 72
33- 72

should I gave up in this char ? Level a new one to 70 and start all over ? the attempts before getting craft level to 50 play a huge factor to "disturb" the prediction of getting the level 77 item?

also can I assume there is huge huge chance a level 75 item will appear in the next 1 or 2 crafts ?

[RAFERS102]

You might as well keep this and keep crafting for that 77. You're guaranteed that and a 76 in the next 31 crafts. Plus you're due two more 75's. Now I wouldn't want to speculate when that is. Using Pythia, I have had the % chance be as high as 90%+ and still got the lesser item. Same has happened when only due a 1% of a 77, got that 77.

[Jude Smith]

Same. I'd say keep going otherwise you've wasted all those mats for nothing. Then I'd make a new char and go again.
In a previous anb I was unlucky enough to get a 77 making my xp/xg gear set. I then kept the char for another 77 and I might as well have just started a fresh for how long it took outside the anb.

[eliel77]

but shouldnt you leave the char ? you got the 77 in anb, it will take much longer to get another 77 item with this char, or does it reset the craft chances when the anb ends ?

[Jude Smith]

I don't think the chance resets after anb. From what I understand you created a 77 while in the anb and all these new attempts are to get a second 77 outside anb? So you might as well keep going on this char because you've used so many resources already it would be a waste go stop now.

From my experience I would say If you only have enough time/resources to craft two 77s and celestialize them within the anb then do it. Otherwise I stop crafting after the first one unless I still need gear for the push or whatever your aim is in the anb.

[eliel77]

In fact I'm crafting with another char. This char had never crafted a level 77 item. The one I got in AnB is with another char.

I understand what you have said only now. You said it would be better to start crafting with a new char after getting 77 in AnB.

[eliel77]

ok Ill keep going. My prediction was correct
34 - level 72 item
35 - level 75 item