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A little info on the new RNG system.

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  • A little info on the new RNG system.

    With version 1.147.1 we changed how random works. Until now we used PGC random(http://www.pcg-random.org/) without any extra tinkering so it was as close to a true random system as possible. In practice this can lead to unwanted game play experiences which statistically are likely to happen but are very annoying to deal with ( bad streaks ).

    In the new system which still uses PGC random we added an extra modifier which in practice acts like a luck factor, for example if your probability of hitting a roll is high( let's say you have 80% crit) and you miss, your luck factor increases , so the next roll you will have a bit of bias towards hitting, the same happens when you hit on a high prob of missing.

    In practice this will remove streaks with low probability(very bad streaks) and also it will distribute hits/misses more uniformly without removing the unpredictability of a true random system(to a high degree).

    To better understand here are some tests using both systems. Each simulation is done with a target chance and 100 rolls where '-' is a miss and 'X' is a hit, we use 100 because it's close to what happens in Ironbound where for example you use an item(weapon) 20-30 times per game so the sample is pretty low.

    Here are two tests with the old system:
    ----X-XX----X-------X-----XX------------X-----------------X-X-X--X---X-XX-XX--X--X-X-XX---X-----X--- (target chance 30%, actual result 24%)
    ---XXXXX--XX-XX--------X--X----XXXX-X-----X---X-X-X-X-----X----X-X--X-------XX-X----XX---X-X--XX--X- (target chance 30%, actual result 35%)
    As you can see we can have big streaks , 5 hits which has a 0.24% chance of happening, or a 15 miss streak with has a 0.47% chance of happening. Also because the test was run for a relatively low number of examples(100) the error is pretty big.

    Here are two tests with the new system:
    -X---X---X-X-X--X---X---X---X--X-X----X--X--X----X-X---X--X-X---X---XX---X----X-X---X--X----X---X-X-(target chance 30%, actual result 30%)
    --X--X--X--X--X--X---X--X---X--X---X-X--X--X----X--XX-----X---X--X--XX----X--X--X-----X--XX-----XXX-(target chance 30% actual result 31%)
    Here we can see that the hits are move evenly distributed, we still have streaks(2,3 hits in a row) but don't have any big, low probability streaks.

    Also this new function works pretty well with varying target chances(for example buffs).

    More tests here:
    old rand : https://pastebin.com/4dzPTbfU
    new rand : https://pastebin.com/5VPBMMEv






  • #2
    I'm curious how people feel about RNG now that you've had this system for two months. Any thoughts?

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    • #3
      Predictable. I've got builds that are viable based on how predictable it is.

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      • #4
        Perhaps it is better as it is now for the critical hits series, but too much predictable for items such as berserker's reinforce: you can trust to have 1 certain extra hit in the row of three but, as well, you can be sure no more than 1 extra .
        Parry: after 1 parry, you can trust you will not have another parry, if chance is about 30%.
        I am not sure this makes better the game.
        let's try for a season.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by David (Producer) View Post
          I'm curious how people feel about RNG now that you've had this system for two months. Any thoughts?
          I think the modification should be dialed back a little. The sweet spot is probably somewhere between the modded PCG generator (current implementation) and the unmodded PCG generator (old implementation). The high level of predictability of the new implementation creates a somewhat stale gaming experience. At the same time, the crazy low probability streaks of the old implementation were somewhat soul crushing, so to speak. Although, if a happy medium can not be reached, or if there is no such thing as a sweet spot, then I would say that a stale game experience is far less desirable than a soul crushing one. I like my tea hot or iced, but never lukewarm.
          Arcanist Mage: Muse, TL 145 in 9:30
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