ANB#17 GOLD, my bad crafting luck

[ricklhall]

I 40 crafts and no lvl 77, all on mobile
guess it tells you something when the very first is your lvl 71.

[bojck]

craft 40 is unlucky, but it does happen - perhaps the odds are 20-ish%. In such cases the 77 will come out very soon, so better go for 'expensive' crafts, e.g. weapons, or stats that use the more 'precious' essences, etc. Then after the 77 I'd just trust the highest chance given by Pythia

[LodWig]

Pay attention to the warning! You have to correct the sequence, or the predictions will be all wrong.

[UmbraDei]

ricklhall As LodWig said: there is a big red warning with warning signs saying the order is most likely wrong. If you now instead continue from the new ordering proposed at the bottom of the page in red, your predictions should be more accurate going forward.

[ricklhall]

UmbraDei @LodWig
Yet if you look at the Check you will see that the order I recorded IS correct. I am very diligent about recording my crafts.

As said in the warning message "Or you just had bad luck"....BTW. very next craft was the lvl 77.
Thx

[LodWig]

Starting with the 76, you entered:	6224253
Pythia’s most likely order is:	6242523

(There may be other errors.)

[UmbraDei]

ricklhall as LodWig said, Check the screenshot more carefully, Pythia suggests one 72 after the 76, not 2.

Filling that in gives 1232243232624252323242325232242433223224, which predicts a 77 as next craft with much higher chance chance

[LodWig]

This is what Pythia would have predicted if you had entered the correct sequence:




No wonder you got a 77 on next craft...

[Gargos]

Pythia is an unforgiving deity. I've found being meticulous early results in good fortune. After many crafts it is easy to become sloppy, but by then you're usually trying to improve gear, and if you have the mats and gold, can simply use chance. I'm sure the top players are meticulous with hundreds of crafts (I'm sloppy after about 100 or so).

[ricklhall]

The order I recorded IS the order that happened, not sloppiness, not an error. It was the EXACT order that occurred. When Pythia shows a different order am I supposed to change my order? Even Pythia thinks that her order was outside of expectations.

[UmbraDei]

I don't want to go into too much details on how I built Pythia and what an extensive database sits behind her, but my advice would really be this:

Even if you're confident you made absolutely no mistakes at all, still give her proposed sequence a try. You will observe the odds of your subsequent crafts will all be significantly better predicted if you trust her to work with a sequence she proposes and considers as "valid". And yes, that will even apply if you meticulously recorded a *slightly* different ordering.

[WarriorSeven]

I too have experienced this Pythia issue, ricklhall. It is NOT your imagination or YOUR error. After meticulously recording my Krafts, I found that it was indeed Pythia, not me, that introduced the transpositions -- but only on occasion (and I don't care or ask why). No sense in fighting it. Just follow @UmbraDeis advice and resequence your list to match that suggested from the Check Crafts procedure.

[ricklhall]

Will do, thx for your selfless hard work giving us tool. I use it always.

[r2d2px1]

Was there i chance to recover a lost sequence on pythia????

[Tin Man]

As long as you have 128 or less total qualifying crafts? Use the "Check crafts" feature in Pythia.