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To Bag or not to Bag: how do I craft a lvl77 item?

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  • Turgeon
    commented on 's reply
    But welc9me to the game dont be shy to ask question. There is already plenty of answer in the forum but some are outdated.

  • Turgeon
    commented on 's reply
    The old wizard title is already being hold by Tin Man

  • UmbraDei
    commented on 's reply
    Point 2 I can indeed reformulate, but avoiding crafting on PC would still remain valid: anything relying on RNG (e.g. stat rolls, sockets, IM effect percentages, "perfect" stat procs etc) is all impacted and can all end up in loops. It doesn't just stop at the BoMs.

  • bojck
    replied
    UmbraDei can you update the Important notes 2 and 3? They sound unnecessarily scary to newer players

    Point is there is no issue crafting legendaries on your first toon before crafting mastery 77, and on PC as well. It's the natural way of leveling up the crafting mastery after all, and people can do just fine with <77 gear. It's just when you decide to go for 77s that you should read the crafting guide and use only new toons as a rule.

    Regarding mobile - there's no real issue in crafting legendaries on PC, except for bracers because of their random effect.

    Leave a comment:


  • Nhat
    commented on 's reply
    No one can make new topics in the Guides sub-forum, admin (Travis) moves topics here after they have been posted elsewhere...

    Either start in Tavern, for general discussions, or the specific classes sub-forums for class specific questions...

  • Beemer Cat
    replied
    This is my first time posting in the forums. It says at the top of forums that everyone's very first post must first be approved... but I can't find the tab to create a post, and the "Guides and Walkthroughs - PLEASE READ BEFORE POSTING" thread doesn't seem contain any threads that indicate where to start... just a bunch of random topics (it seemed to be designed for people who already know what they're doing). So I randomly picked this threat to make my first post. I don't know what I need to do to get approved to start making posts. I've been playing RP games most of my life (I'm an ancient 52... but SOMEONE has to be the old wizard, right?), and I'm enjoying this game on my smartphone. I just downloaded it onto my PC because the smartphone screen is just to small. However I can't figure out how to link the account. Any advice? I'll just sit here in this dark corner hoping someone will find me and tell me what to go do with myself.

    Leave a comment:


  • kurtcabage
    commented on 's reply
    you need to re-read the guide if you don't get it

  • LodWig
    replied
    After we had discovered what could be the GFEM algorithm, I also wrote this, trying to get rid of the ill-conceived Bag Theory. (Which, in my defence, was born after I had observed that my first seven "bag-of-32" were perfect, with one 77 in each.)

    There Is No Bag

    Assuming max Mastery Level, the ideal frequency for level gains from 0 to 6 is
    1/64 | 1/2 | 1/4 | 1/8 | 1/16 | 1/32 | 1/64

    So after 64 krafts (that is, "special" or "in the bag" crafts), the ideal distribution is of course
    1 | 32 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1

    and this may be an actual distribution, because all numbers are whole numbers.


    After 32 krafts only, the ideal distribution is
    1/2 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1/2

    and this of course cannot be an actual distribution. In this sense, there cannot be a perfect bag of 32, but we use to call perfect this actual distribution:
    1 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0

    and this one:
    0 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1

    And indeed these two form of so-called perfect distributions do happen a lot.


    You can also consider bags of 16, with ideal distribution
    1/4 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 | 1/4

    and call perfect any actual distribution of the form
    ? | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ? | ?


    Again, this so-called perfect distributions happens a lot, but maybe less frequently than perfects 32.

    Whatever the ideal distribution is according to the number of krafts, the Gambler's Fallacy mechanism will try to make so the actual distribution is very close. There is no "grouping" done, *there is no bag*, it's just that by observing the krafts by group of 32 or 64 we see patterns more easily.
    (Edit: The ideal frequency given on top is for "krafts".)
    Last edited by LodWig; 02-20-2021, 12:48 PM.

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  • LodWig
    replied
    This post is to provide some bit of context and history for the There Is No BagTM idea, which is that the GFEM is not simply picking from a bag. I wrote it in the discord server, circa mid-2020. Then Icedin published a proposal for what could be the algorithm of the GFEM, we discussed its merits and flaws, then UmbraDei joined us with two key ideas, from which we devised an algorithm that we think is very close to the one used (based on simulations and comparison to actual outputs). This algorithm is the one I used for the chart published above.

    The bag model is a model of the behaviour of the "randomness" of the item level you get when crafting a level 71 legendary set item, when your Mastery Level is 50.
    When this is, the Master Crafter perk gives you a 50% chance to gain an extra item level, applying multiple time.
    So, when trying to craft an item level 71, you have 50% chance to get a 71 item, and 50% chance to get a higher item.
    In turn, this item may be a 72 (with 50% chance) or a higher item, etc.
    All in all, according to the theory, you will have 1/2 chance to get a 71, 1/4 chance to get a 72, 1/8 for a 73, 1/16 for a 74, 1/32 for a 75, 1/64 for a 76 and 1/64 for a 77.
    It turns out that for level 71 set (or unique) items, the distribution is skewed in favor of higher levels.
    This, at least, for heroes that have never crafted before, up to a certain unknown limit. A particular case in point: ANB heroes.
    Numerous experiments have shown that for these heroes, the distribution of item levels is very close to: 1/64 71, 1/2 72, 1/4 73, 1/8 74, 1/16 75, 1/32 76, 1/64 77
    Furthermore, it seems the game tries really hard to stick to this distribution, and often, each group of 64 crafts done by a hero contains exactly 1 71, 32 72s, 16 73s, ... , 2 76s, 1 77
    (By "group of 64" here we mean the first 64 crafts, then the next 64 crafts (i.e. crafts 65 to 128), etc.)
    Moreover, more often than not, grouping by packs of 32 shows also an "ideal" distribution: 16 72s, 8 73s, ..., 1 76 and either one 71 or one 77
    Hence, the bag theory was (long (?) ago) that the game (sort of) used a bag of 32 tokens, with levels written on it, showing the ideal distribution, and randomly picked a token in this bag each time you crafted a level 71 legendary set item, to get the final level of the item, throwing the token afterwards. (One of the token was either presenting a level 71 or a level 77)
    When the bag was empty, the game used a new one (with maybe a new choice of 71 or 77)
    Because several experiments were not following this theory, it is now considered only a "model" of how the game choose the levels (akin to a weather model, which forecast the weather, with no certainty but enough accuracy to help you decide to go to the beach or stay at home)
    One big blow to the theory is that if you effectively try to use a bag and pick randomly from it (throwing what you picked), you will not see close to ideal distribution for even smaller bags (16, or 8, even 4)
    It is unknown, to me at least, what is the algorithm used by the game to choose item levels, with a certain randomness in results, but somehow managing to stay so close to the ideal distribution at all time
    But
    When crafting, you can think about the model, when choosing the items and the stats on it.
    For example, if you got a 77 at craft #9, it is unlikely you will have another one before craft #33 (you have "pulled the 77 out of the bag of 32, there are no more left")
    But beware, this is a model, some are well known to have been bitten by it.

    Leave a comment:


  • Benedicto
    commented on 's reply
    If you do not have patience, then RPG games is not fit for you..

  • UmbraDei
    commented on 's reply
    Because you absolutely need the 50% Master Craft perk. It gives a 1/64 chance of a lvl77.

    Consider if you would only have 40% chance because you've not yet maxed the Mastery Level, then the chance of a lvl77 would be 1/244! And at lower percentages the chance is even a lot worse.

  • Hermiyas
    replied
    what is the point max to 50 if results not always 77!

    Leave a comment:


  • Travis | Support Mgr.
    commented on 's reply
    Please don't quote an entire post when leaving a reply.

  • UmbraDei
    commented on 's reply
    Gold is also kept. You should really compare an ANB hero with a "new account with 1 hero slot". If you delete the hero and create a new one, all things in stash, crafting materials, gold etc are kept, as well as Champion Levels. Everything in the hero inventory or equipped gear disappears.

  • Ozymandius
    commented on 's reply
    kurtcabage Thanks for sharing your experience. This is a great strategy! I always feel like my ANB crafting luck is over once I craft a level 77 piece. I usually get one level 76 and one level 77 in the first 30-40 crafts, then I sometimes just try for another level 75 piece but mostly I just grind XP and wait to push. I new have crafted over 64 items to open a new bag. Now I know that I can craft another hero to start a new bag. Sounds like you can stash what you want to keep like gear and gemstones in the ANB account for the next hero. Do you lose the Gold or does that stay in the account?
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