To Bag or not to Bag: how do I craft a lvl77 item?

[Hermiyas]

I dont care about stupid math. spent thousands maths i want results.

[Arawn]

UmbraDei Thx!

[UmbraDei]

Correct, for anything not legendary special 70+, the game absolutely doesn't care about your history and you could have many 77s in a row (or none at all)

[Arawn]

All of this post only applies to crafting of lvl70 and lvl71 legendary set or unique items, as well as Mastery Level 50.
If you do a normal legendary, a lower lvl or an uncommon/rare/epic item, it's still 1/64 chance but with fair random dice rolls, you could have 5 in a row or you could have none for 300 crafts.

Just confirming--this means there's no point in starting a new character for crafting if you're crafting rare items? The odds of rolling a 77 are the same as for an established character that's already rolled a 77?

[LodWig]

The Bracer of Mastery is a Unique item, so the rules apply.

[Arawn]

LodWig Do these crafting rules/chance of getting a 77 apply to the BOMs too or only the armour and weapon sets?

[laffcarl]

Oh Don't forget the randomness!

Last Alpha test 24 hour ANB, my very first legendary/unique craft was a 77 VoWS
Alas there were NO CT's available :-(
So that character was not a good one to keep.
Although you did have 24 hours play time so coulda crafted away like mad and burnt through a few bags/cases of beer lol, but there didn't seem to be any point without the CT's (apart from the beer) 8-D

[Arawn]

LodWig Thanks mate!

[LodWig]

(Assuming Mastery Level 50.)

What was crafted by one hero has no influence at all on what will be crafted by a new hero. A new hero will start with a clean slate, and will likely get you a 77 in about 28 crafts.

The second 77 from that same hero will need about another 64 craft, and the third 64 more, etc. That's why the "delete crafter after first 77 and start a new one" is an effective technique to reduce the average number of craft needed per 77.

[Arawn]

If 77 is crafted on new character, then character deleted and new character created, will it take more crafts to roll a 77 again (ie 77 closer to craft #32) or is there just as much chance to roll a 77 within the first few crafts as if a 77 hadn't just been rolled on a deleted character?

[UmbraDei]

In that case your predictions will (usually) be 'off' by a partial not-a-bag of 64. So if your history had 1 more 77 than a 71 for example, the Pythia will systematically give you 77 odds that are too high, and 71 odds that are too low, for that hero, forever.

That's why the Pythia works best on a new hero with a clean history.


P.S. Guess who built the Pythia? :-)

[Finn42]

Is there any way to find out what your previous crafts where?
meaning, if I didn't record all the legendary set|unique items before, can I someone "get back onto the path" ?
I'm using https://85df0333a30d.ngrok.io/ have accurate will it be if I just craft ~10 items, and then just use that data? i've crafted like 4-5 items on the char, I don't remember if 72/73 etc...
thanks.

[Grand_Wazoo]

Glad to read this is not an issue anymore. Won't have to replace all my old characters.
Thanks.

[UmbraDei]

New update:

Important Note #2 has been removed, as it seems this is not (or no longer?) correct.

An experiment with a new account and literally hundreds of crafts (fun fact, did you know it takes 325 Integralas Mantles to go from ML25 to ML50? ) shows the bias for less higher level crafts is pretty much gone as soon as you reach ML50.

Once you reach ML50, new crafts seem to follow the normal GFEM pattern again.


We apologise for the confusion this caused.
It's important in science to regularly revisit past assumptions, and in this case, it seems that we can now refute part of the previous theories with a new experiment.

[Bali_Lenni]

.....I think.I found the answer in another thread... the abilities are set back to Lvl.1 and ability upgrade slot #2 would also.have to be opened again...seems.logical...